Newspaper claims Iran lost $450 billion in oil exports in a decade

Newspaper claims Iran lost $450 billion in oil exports in a decade
Newspaper claims Iran lost $450 billion in oil exports in a decade

Iran has lost $450 billion in oil revenue in a decade due to international and US sanctions, causing a severe economic crisis, according to a Tehran newspaper.

The Aftab News site based its calculation lost revenue on OPEC’s annual oil export figures and considered that the UN Security Council sanctions that came into play ten years ago and lasted more than 3 years, followed by US sanctions since 2018 have cost Iran dearly.

In the absence of sanctions, Iran exported between 2.2 and 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, which, depending on world prices, could generate annual revenues of up to $100 billion. But when the sanctions were imposed, those exports fell to 200,000 barrels a day, as they did in 2019. Currently, circumventing existing US sanctions, Tehran would sell up to a million barrels, mostly to China .

Around 2010, Iran was generating revenues close to $100 billion while in 2021, OPEC estimated oil export revenues at just $25 billion, with an average shipment of 763,000 barrels per day. If exports had continued at the daily rate of 2.5 million barrels last year, Iran would have earned $82 billion.

Although our estimate of Iran’s losses over the past decade is much lower than what Aftab news has calculated, it is still considerable. Based on the same OPEC data and other indicators, we estimate that Iran has lost around $300 billion, although a substantial portion of sales during the sanctions remain hidden, especially in terms of real revenue. .

Iran’s losses have a disproportionate impact since the country has failed to break free from an oil export-based economy. About half of the government’s budget depends on oil revenues, and an annual shortfall of $30 billion is devastating to the largely state-owned and controlled economic system.

This is why the annual inflation rate has been running at over 40% for the past two years as the government has resorted to printing huge sums of money to pay its obligations.

The government has decided at its Nov. 2 cabinet meeting to allow individuals and companies to sell crude in violation of U.S. sanctions, under rules and conditions kept confidential.

This might increase export earnings slightly, but it will first enrich the government and military leaders who will tightly control who is allowed to act as a middleman.

The scheme is not new. During the international nuclear sanctions in the early 2010s, the same method was used with the result that two major embezzlement cases emerged, one in oil exports and the other. the other in petrochemicals.

In a clandestine oil export program, a trader named Babak Zanjani, with close ties to government leaders, pocketed at least $2.7 billion and has been in prison for years pending execution which has not been done so far. Some think he still hasn’t returned the money or that he knows too much to hang. A third possibility is that he owes percentages to powerful officials, and they still hope to get their money back.

Lately, the Biden administration appears to be more intent on enforcing U.S. sanctions, naming individuals and third-party companies that are somehow involved in trading with sanctioned Iranian entities.

Thursday only, The US Treasury Department has sanctioned 13 companies in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong which she said were involved in Iran’s petrochemical exports.

. newspaper claims iran lost billion dollars exports oil a decade

. Newspaper claims Iran lost billion oil exports decade

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